中国酒店业投资机会与投资风险-彭建人
美国美华投资有限公司COO
彭建人先生
[简历]
1992～1999年，香港阳光集团 董事长
Peng Jianren,President of Hong Kong Sunshine Group from 1992-1999
2000至今 美国美华投资有限公司
全球营运总裁
From 2000 until now Chief Operation Officer in Sino-America Investment Co., Ltd
中国酒店业投资机会与投资风险
中国宏观经济的持续高速增长、对外经济贸易合作广泛深入，形成了中国旅游业良好的外部环境。中国旅游业正运行在一个长景气周期里，根据世界旅游组织的预测，到2020年，中国旅游业在世界市场中所占份额将达到8.6%，居世界首位。同时中国还将成为世界旅游市场第4大客源国，而目前的数据显示，也许这一预测仍然过于保守。
我国城镇居民人均收入超过1000美元标志着居民消费已经处于升级临界点，居民消费的升级换代将带动旅游产业的长期增长，从而为旅游饭店业的持续增长带来机遇。2004年国际旅游饭店业的巨头加大了在华投资的力度，国内旅游饭店加快了资产重组及集团化发展的步伐，显示了旅游饭店行业在我国的广阔前景。
经过26年的发展，中国旅游业的消费主角已经从境外人士全面转向国内居民，国内旅游收入占到了旅游业总收入的七成左右。随着中国进入第一次消费升级阶段，居民可支配收入和消费水平不断提高，农民收入增长加快，城镇居民旅游消费层次逐步提高，国内旅游呈现巨大发展潜力，发达地区旅游逐步从奢侈品蜕变为必需品，全球旅游业的散客化趋势也开始席卷中国，自助旅游热将带来中国传统旅游业的变革，也为相关产业提供了一次发展良机。
自助旅游服务空间广阔
中国旅游业基础设施和服务模式过于倾向团队旅游的结构性问题将逐步得到改善，而为自助旅游的配套设施，包括经济型酒店、自驾车配套服务等都是未来中国旅游业极具发展潜力的领域。
中国酒店业的结构性问题相当突出，对中低档酒店的资源进行整合，建设经济型连锁酒店将成为旅游行业的重大投资机遇，经济型酒店对现存三星级以下酒店的替代作用不容小视。
随着自驾车旅游的兴起，与自驾车相关的配套设施和服务产业，如包含租赁、维修、救援等内容的汽车服务中心、汽车旅馆、停车场、自助旅游保险等，中国还刚处于起步阶段，或者仍是一片空白，未来发展空间十分广阔。
中介服务方式改革在即
中国旅行社行业目前正处在艰难的转型期，经过前两年的购并风潮之后并未形成真正有效的资源整合，传统旅行社所谓的渠道优势和客源优势显得十分脆弱，利润率大幅滑坡态势并未随着行业转暖而改变。
目前旅游网站、旅行俱乐部等新兴旅游中介已经开始逐步挤占旅行社的生存空间，传统旅行社正逐渐意识到散客旅游的巨大市场，将注意力转向在线旅游和自助旅游，由于旅行社巨头的进入，并不稳定的在线旅游市场有可能出现变局，成为旅行社龙头企业翻身的一个契机。
决定投资机会的关键因素
宏观减速周期中的避风港旅游板块当前的投资机会一定程度上是建立在相对于投资品及大多数工业行业的景气衰退基础上的，而此时旅游行业的景气程度仍在持续提高，上市公司业绩保持增长。在宏观经济见顶回落的情况下，旅游行业的防御性特点将使其成为具有吸引力的避风港。
全流通背景下市盈率溢价的合理性当前旅游业9家重点上市公司，平均市盈率25.9倍，平均动态市盈率23倍。与市场平均16倍市盈率水平相比，旅游板块的高市盈率是否合理呢？我们认为，旅游业的估值溢价来自以下几个方面：一是旅游行业的持续增长能力；二是以景点行业为代表的自然垄断特性，进入壁垒很高；三是酒店投资商拥有隐性资产增值；四是稳定的现金流，景点为代表的垄断行业投资回报率平稳增长；五是公司经营业绩和长期发展对公司治理结构优劣的反应敏感度较低。
而在当前股权分置改革全面铺开，全流通成为必然预期的背景下，股票估值逐渐与国际接轨，个股质地和长期成长性也受到更多重视；同时资本的流动性增加使得资产本身价值显得更为重要，从而产生资产重估的冲动。酒店行业的重估增值动因在于城市土地和房价的攀升，而景点行业的动因则在于以门票经营权为主的无形资产价值重估。我们认为，全流通有望成为释放景点和酒店行业高昂的重置成本潜能的催化剂。
旅游行业市盈率的国际比较， 我们将重点旅游业上市公司与NYSE的相关行业的平均市盈率水平做个比较。我们选取NYSE分类中的lodging(住宿业，即酒店经营商)和general entertainment作为比较对象，通过对比发现，目前重点跟踪上市公司的静态PE略高于NYSE，动态PE已基本与NYSE相当。
对酒店行业来说，如果进一步考察美国的REIT-hotel/motel（酒店投资商），其市盈率高达73.5倍，显然对酒店业主来说，资产增值比盈利更为重要。中国酒店业的酒店经营商和投资商的综合体，资产结构更倾向于投资商，从这个方面看，酒店业PE已经进入了合理范围。而对峨眉山和黄山这样的自然资源型旅游企业来说，与general entertainment（休闲娱乐业）所涵盖的滑雪、游艇、主题乐园等休闲娱乐业务可比性并不算强，国际估值标准的缺失使得这类个股的上行压力较轻。
酒店如何引进风险投资
目前实际已经开始和存在的风险资金介入就有如家和七天（都是经济型）；早期独立上市的有湖南华天和深圳新都；集团上市比较大型的有上海锦江(据我们所知,锦江酒店管理公司正在找求海外资本市场;而锦江之星同样在做境外上市的准备)，规模较小的是去年的天津泰达；正在上市的有金陵。等等。
有的成熟以后引进资本；有的则是一个好的商业计划书；从一开始的策划就拿到了风险投资。因为正好与其需求相吻合。
不管是属于前者还是后者首先需要商业计划书。市场前景的分析，投入之后的产出，利润比例，管理团的介绍等等，这都需要在商业计划书包里说得很清楚。然后把计划书递交给投资商。
资本市场看好中国酒店业
国际上最优秀的酒店集团和管理公司上市与资本对接的案例，大家熟悉的，近的香格里拉；远的欧美国家成功的上市国际酒店管理公司应该都已介入中国市场。
从国际经验来看，大家可能认为资本市场青睐成本较低的与资产分离的管理公司。而实际上，目前在中国酒店业来说，资本更看好的是产权加经营的运作结构。
为什么？因为从发展的角度，目前中国包含地产价值的酒店经营权具有升值的空间。
所以，现在大家看到或听到很多关于欧美资本收购中国四星五星酒店的信息。
有的国际财团委托中介机构是十亿几十亿美金购买8到10座四星五星酒店。
但是，大家需要注意的一个问题是：前面讲到经济型，现在又讲到高星标，就把三星层次的搁浅了。那么，我们的投资者，经营者，是否应该走出一条在经济型和高层次之间找到一个合理的突破？因为这个市场的需求量是非常大的。符合中国的人口密集度需要，也符合大部分人的消费水平和习惯。
投资酒店存在的风险
与资本衔接的例子，会很吸引人。但同样存在着很大的风险。
因为中国酒店业这些年直到2010年其发展的速度实在太快。如果机会把握不好，等到大家都排队再去后续跟进的时候可能就会存在很大的风险。
任何投资，任何经营，都存在风险。
避免不必要的风险，需要投资商和经营者共同的智慧对市场进行3-5年的的预测和判断市场的准确率。
中国的机会很大，尽管存在风险，但投资商在这些年依然会追随中国的经济增长而投入大量的资本在酒店业，以争取它实质的利润增长。
资本，永远面对快速增长的行业，中国酒店正是如此。
Investment Opportunity and Risk in Chinese Hotel Industry
Peng Jianren
The continuously and rapidly developing Chinese macro economy and expanding and deepening foreign economic and trade cooperation promise favorable external environment for Chinese tourism industry. According to the prediction of World Tourism Organization, in 2020, Chinese tourism industry, which develops in a long-term promising period, will occupy 8.6% market share of that of the world and ranking top in the world. In the meantime, China will develop into the fourth country of tourist source in the global tourist market. As the current data indicate, the prediction maybe still to conservative.
China's urban household income per capita exceeds UD 1,000 dollars, which indicates that household consumption has come to the critical point for upgrade. The upgrade of household consumption will bring the long-term development of tourism industry and opportunities for the continuous climbing of tourist hotel industry. In 2004, giants of international tourist hotel industry expanded their investment in China. And domestic tourist hotels also speeded up their pace of asset reconstruction and chain development, which says that tourist hotel industry expects a huge potential in China.
After twenty-six years of development, the leading rule of Chinese tourism industry has shifted from overseas tourists to domestic residents and the domestic tourism revenue accounts for 70% of the aggregate of the tourism industry. Since China has phased into the first consumption upgrade stage, resident's disposable income, consumption level, farmer's income and the level of urban household tourism consumption increase rapidly and continuously, domestic tourism expects huge potential. Tourism in domestic areas has gradually transformed from a luxury to a necessity and the independence tendency of tourists of global tourism industry has begun to sweep China. The hotness of Self-help travel will bring a reform to Chinese traditional tourism industry and provide a opportunity for relevant industries.
Self-help travel service expects broad space
The structural matter that the infrastructure and service mode of Chinese tourism industry inclines to group travel will be solved step by step and supporting facilities of self-help travel including hotels in economical type and drive travel service expect huge potential.
Chinese hotel industry suffers evident structural matters. Therefore, to integrate resources of hotels of medium and low level and construct chain hotels in economical type will place an important opportunity for investment in the tourism industry. Hotels in economical type will exert a great function as the substitute of current hotels of 3-star level or below.
With the development of drive travel, relevant facilities and service trade like auto service center involving leasehold, maintenance and aid, motel, parking lot and self travel insurance are just in the preliminary stage in China and also expect broad space for development .
Agency service demands reform
The travel service trade in China is experiencing hard transforming and has achieved no effective resource integration after purchase and acquisition in the past two years. Traditional travel agencies have the fragile advantages in channel and tourist source. The great downgrade of profit margin still remains unchanged though the trade has heated up.
New travel service agencies like travel website and tourist club have managed to compete for market share with traditional travel agencies, who has begun to find the huge market of independent tourists and shifted their focus on online travel and self-help travel. The cut-in of travel service giants bring a possible change to the unsteady online travel market and an opportunity for travel agencies to recover and stand out again.
Key factors that decide investment opportunities
Haven in the macro speed-down period Current investment opportunity in tourism industry is based on the depression of investment products and most industries to some extent. However, the tourism industry is still hot and listed companies have their performance increased. Under the circumstances of the fall of macro economy, the defense feature of the tourism industry will make it an attractive haven.
Rationality of PE premium
The current nine key listed companied in the tourism industry average 25.9 times of PE and 23 times of dynamic PE. Is it rational comparing to the averaged 16 times of PE in the market? The premium of tourism industry is estimated on the basis of the following aspects: 1. continuous improvement capacity of tourism industry; 2. natural monopoly and high admission barrier, typically in the scenic spot-based trade; 3. hotel investors hold latent asset evaluation; 4. stable cash flow and the steadily increasing return of investment of monopolized trade represented by scenic spots; 5. low sensitivity of company's achievement and long-term development on the effectiveness of corporate operation and management structure.
Under the background that reform of non-tradable shares is underway extensively and total currency becomes inevitability, stock evaluation is gradually internationalized and more concern is paid to individual stock quality and long-term growth. In the meantime, the increase of capital fluidity promises more importance for capital value and bring a impulse for asset re-valuation. The reevaluation in hotel industry attributes to the climbing of civil land and house price. The reevaluation in hotel industry attributes to the climbing of civil land and house price, reevaluation of intangible assets dominated by the right to ticket operation. We believe that total currency is expected to become an activator to release the potential of high resetting cost of the scenic-spot-based trade and hotel industry.
International comparison of PE in the tourism industry We made a comparison of the PE level between key listed tourism companies and relevant trades of NYSE. We chose lodging (refer to hotel operators) and general entertainment from the category of NYSE as the comparison object and found that the static PE of the key listed companies is slightly higher than that of NYSE, while the dynamic PE is equivalent basically.
To hotel industry, if we make a further study on REIT-hotel/motel (hotel investors) in America, we will find that the PE is 73.5 times. Obviously, asset appreciation is more important than profit to hotel owners. For the combination of hotel operators and investors in Chinese hotel industry, investors expect a favorable asset structure. In this case, the PE of hotel industry has entered the rational scope. To tourism enterprises in natural resource type like Mt. Emei and Mt. Huangshan, they are not so strong in general entertainment businesses like ski, yacht and theme park. The loss of international evaluation standard promises low pressure for such individual stocks to climb.
How can a hotel introduce risk investment?
Currently, only Home Inn and 7 Days Inn (both are of economical type) have introduced in risk capital; Hunan Huatian and Shenzhen Century Plaza have be listed earlier; Shanghai Jinjiang is a large listed group and Tianjin Teda listed last year and Jinling to be listed are of small size; etc.
Some introduce capital after getting mature; some began from a good business plan and gain the risk investment from the very beginning, because it tallies with their requirement.
No matter to which you belong, you are demanded to create a business plan first of all, including market prospect analysis, output after investment, profit proportion and introduction of management class, which should be clarified in the business plan. And then the plan may be submitted to the investor.
Capital market favors Chinese hotel industry
Excellent hotel groups and management companies that have set their example in listing and entering capital market, including Shangri-la and other successfully listed international hotel management companies in the West have cut in Chinese market.
From international experience, people usually may think that capital market favors management companies with low cost and asset separation. However, actually capital favors more the operational structure integrated with property and operation in Chinese hotel industry.
Why? It is because that from the viewpoint of development, the right to hotel operation including real estate in China expects a space for appreciation.
Thus, what we hear and catch sight of is mostly information about capital of the West purchasing Chinese hotels of 4 or 5 star levels.
Some international giants even authorize agencies to purchase eight to ten such hotels with billion dollars.
However, we should concern the matter that we talk about economical-type hotel and that of high star level and neglect that of the three-star level. Then, should investors and operators find a reasonable breakthrough between economical type and high level? It is because the market has a huge demand. It conforms to the demand of the dense population of China and the consumption level and habit of most people.
Hotel investment risk
Though there are so many eye-catching examples, investment exits a high risk.
It is because that Chinese hotel industry is developing too rapidly till 2010. If we miss the opportunity and follow the crowd later, we might expect a high risk.
Any investment and operation exists risk.
To avoid unnecessary risk, investors and operators are required to carry out 3-5-year prediction on market and judge the accurateness of market with joint wisdom.
There are both opportunity an risk in China, but investors will still follow the developing Chinese economy and place large investment in hotel industry to pursue sustainable profit increase.
Capital always belongs to rapidly developing industries, Chinese hotel inclusive.
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